Politics determines the economy: Why did I publicly predict in 2017 that Chinese housing prices would peak and oppose investing? 政决定经：我为什么在2017年公开判断中国房价将见顶并反对投资？
It is not yet clear whether the data in the chart is accurate. Just considering that the highest point of Beijing's housing prices was on March 26, 2017, it roughly matches my impression.
Starting in March 2017, Beijing took the lead in implementing the central government's policies and introduced stringent new measures. Subsequently, Beijing's housing prices fell in response, which deeply affected the housing prices in surrounding provinces and cities.
Then, many provinces and cities gradually followed suit; some may have been reluctant, some dragged their feet, and some may have advanced one step and retreated two, but the overall trend was irreversible.
In the following years, although hot money repeatedly flowed in and pushed housing prices back up, new policies were increasingly strengthened, until January 2021, when the nationwide implementation of the "Three Red Lines" firmly set the course. Since then, the situation in the real estate market speaks for itself up to today.
The author has long been engaged in reporting and researching international finance, politics, and current affairs, and has also long followed China's real estate investment market, possessing practical experience.
Although in the first decade or so of this century, I was consistently bullish on China's real estate market, determined to buy and hold, advising friends and relatives who were pessimistic to buy property, and advising those with a fear of heights not to sell, by 2017, I publicly expressed on multiple WeChat groups and personal Weibo accounts my view that China's housing prices had peaked and that investors should timely exit the real estate market.
Originally, I made this judgment in 2016.
In October of that year, a major meeting in China officially established the leadership core;
In November, Trump was elected President of the United States for the first time;
In December, an important Chinese economic conference proposed for the first time the policy guideline that 'houses are for living, not for speculation.'
These significant events led me to clearly inform my relatives that 'China's housing prices have peaked, and real estate investments should be cashed out in time.'
However, in public, I began openly discussing this view with many netizens within one or two months after joining multiple real estate investment WeChat groups at the end of April 2017, and I also publicly posted this view on my Weibo account around the same time.
Recently, I was organizing the documents on my computer and came across nearly 20,000 words of my chat records from a real estate investment WeChat group, which I had saved on June 15, 2017 after participating in the group for over a month. I also logged into my personal Weibo account and found the public posts from that year.
The following are screenshots of the excerpts, like a time capsule, documenting that at that time I had already become pessimistic about investing in the Chinese real estate market, believing that I should sell properties to cash out and only keep my own residence.
As for the several increases in housing prices after 2017, did selling early mean losing out? It should be known that "not trying to make the last penny" is a key principle of investment. People are not gods—who can precisely buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest? Being greedy for these exact lowest and highest points will most likely result in missing out, and could even lead to significant losses. Moreover, when you are at the highest point, who will you sell to? Who will take over this market that is about to reverse downward? Only during an uptrend is the right time to sell. Besides, real estate is an asset with poor liquidity. When preparing to sell, it can take a long time from listing to transaction; sometimes waiting for years is normal. Especially for properties with very high total prices, even during a frenzied market boom, it takes a long time to find a buyer. Therefore, preparation must begin early, and the year 2017 was not too early for this. And once lacking decisiveness and hesitating, one may easily be dragged into the ultra-long downtrend since 2021, potentially being stuck with the property and regretting it deeply. Whether individuals or business owners can exit in time mainly depends on their own determination and whether there are obstacles from family or colleagues. This determination, in turn, depends on confidence in their own judgment.
Nowadays, it's not profitable and can even lead to losses because houses are now for living, not for speculation, and are basically no longer financial products.
When your motivation is not based on housing needs and you don't treat a house as a consumption item, but instead invest huge amounts of money hoping to make a big profit at the peak of the market—and then stubbornly hold on when the times change—you will end up facing increasing losses.
Finance has always been one of the most profitable industries throughout history, even during downturns, it can still generate relative profits, and during upturns, it far outpaces most other industries.
A person will have many financial opportunities in their lifetime, but opportunities like China's real estate market—accessible to the general public, profitable, and long-lasting—may only come once in a person's life.
Tides rise and fall. What's past is past; people should neither cling to it nor regret it. If you are satisfied with what you've earned, enjoy life to the fullest; if you are not, then go find the next opportunity.
This is a form of high-level visionary thinking, starting from the cosmic essence, the 'Tao,' to understand all things, and then returning to the 'Tao.'
It is like tracing a river from its source down the water system, or examining a tree from its roots to its branches and leaves; by looking at the whole picture, understanding becomes clear.
The world economy and politics are closely intertwined, and in China's national conditions, politics determines the economy. China's economy, including the real estate market, is determined by politics.
Investors need to rise above the myriad of complex and confusing information, such as statements and actions by experts, influential figures, and developers, as well as measures in various provinces, cities, and districts, and all so-called insider news...
First, focus on seriously and thoroughly studying the important speeches and meeting directives from the highest level, reading and understanding authoritative news sources such as Xinhua News Agency, People's Daily, and China Central Television, and directly consulting the official websites for major policy announcements.
Learning and implementing these allows one to synchronize with the nation's future and global development, seize opportunities of the times, and avoid financial risks. This is not empty rhetoric; it has very practical significance.
政决定经：我为什么在2017年公开判断中国房价将见顶并反对投资？
李首之
近日，笔者看到一张《100城房价回撤幅度（2025年10月26日）》网图，该图列举了中国100座城市房价上涨的最高点是在哪个年月日、现在房价跌回到了哪个年月日。
这些数字既凸显了中国房地产这个曾经最大、最久暴富神器的耀眼，也刻画出它让无数家庭和企业从百万级到万亿级财富的灰飞烟灭。
如今，那个房地产黄金时代，从1998年房地产市场化改革起，房价总体上涨超过二十年的黄金时代早已结束。在涨潮时错过这一盛宴、退潮时深陷泥潭者中，无名普通市民和知名亿万富豪比比皆是，有的转运一生，有的毁了一生。
总结这一经验教训，对我们把握当下和未来，仍有积极意义。
该图数据是否准确暂且不明，仅就其中的北京房价最高点是2017年3月26日来看，和我的印象大致差异不大。
是在2017年3月起，北京市带头贯彻落实中央精神，出台严厉新政，随后北京房价应声而跌，更深度影响周边省市房价。
接着，众多省市陆陆续续跟进，有的可能不情不愿，有的存在拖拖拉拉，有的或许走一步退两步，但大势不可逆。
随后几年，尽管热钱一再涌入推动房价回涨，但新政层层加码，直至2021年1月全国全面施行"三道红线"，自此一锤定音，直至今日，楼市现状无须赘述。
笔者长期从事国际财经时政新闻的报道和研究，也长期关注中国房地产投资市场，具备实务经验。
尽管我在本世纪前十几年一路看多中国楼市，坚定要买入、持有，劝看空的亲友买房，劝恐高的亲友别卖，但到了2017年，我在多个微信群和个人微博账号上，公开提出中国房价将见顶、投资者应及时撤出楼市的观点。
该年10月，中国一重大会议正式确立了领导核心；
11月，特朗普首次当选美国总统；
12月，中国重要经济会议首次提出"房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的"政策方针……
这些大事让我对身边亲属明确了"中国房价将见顶，楼市投资要及时套现离场"这一判断和决定。
但在公开场合，我是于2017年4月底进入多个房地产投资微信群后的一、二个月内，和众多网友进行开公开讨论，多次表达了这一观点，并在同期于我的微博账号上公开发布过这一观点。
近日我整理电脑中的文档，看到了我在2017年6月15日保存的、我在房地产投资微信群一个多月的发言记录近两万字，并登录个人微博，找到当年的公开博文。
以下是有关摘录的截图，如同时光胶囊，记录着我那时候已对中国楼市投资不看好了，认为应该卖房套现、只留自住房：
至于2017年后的几年里房价仍有几次涨幅，卖早了是不是吃亏？
要知道，"不赚最后一个铜板"是投资要诀，人不是神，谁能极精准地买到最低点又卖到最高点？贪这个最低和最高就会极大概率得不到，反而损失巨大。
而且，当你在最高点时，卖给谁？谁来接这个将逆转向下的盘？只有在上涨期，才是你出手的时机。
更何况，房子是流动性差的标的，当准备出售，从挂牌到成交，要很长时间，甚至等几年都很正常。特别是总价很高的，即使在楼市的疯狂上涨期，都要很久才卖得出去。
所以，必须提前开始准备，2017年并不早。而一旦不够果断，犹豫不决，就容易拖到2021年以来的超漫长下行周期，有可能彻底烂在手里，悔之莫及。
个人和企业主能不能及时撤出，主要看自己的决心，和有无家人、同僚的阻挠，而这个决心，取决于对自己判断的信心。
以前楼市很赚钱，是因为房子主要是金融产品，是用来炒的，而不是住的。很多人当年一再错过的原因，特别是二零零几年，是因为把它当住的来看。
现在不赚钱、倒贴钱，是因为它是住的而不是炒的了，基本上不是金融产品。
当你不是住宿需求，不是把房子作为消费品，而是在房价要见顶时，毫掷巨资入场想大赚一笔，当时代变了还死扛着，结果会亏损越来越大。
古今中外金融都是最赚钱的行业之一，哪怕是在下行周期时也是相对能赚钱的，上升周期就远甩绝大多数行业了。
人一辈子会有很多金融机会，但像中国楼市这种普罗大众都能参与能赚钱的机遇，周期又长，人一生很可能只这一次。
潮起潮落。过去就过去了，人别留恋也别惋惜了，如果满足已赚的就过好滋润日子，不满现状就去寻找下一个风口。
老子《道德经》说："天下有始，以为天下母。既得其母，以知其子；既知其子，复守其母，没身不殆。"
这是一种高屋建瓴思维，从宇宙本体"道"入手去认知万物，又复归于"道"。
如从江河源头沿水系而下，也如一棵树由根到枝到叶，看全局、看问题会豁然开朗。
世界经济和政治密不可分，而中国国情，政决定经。中国经济包括楼市，由政治决定。
投资者要越过各种复杂纷纭的消息、这个专家大V那个开发商的言行、这个省市那个地区的举措和各种所谓内幕消息……先直接去认真深入学习最高层的重要讲话和会议精神，阅读理解好新华社、《人民日报》、中央电视台的权威消息，直接找重大政策消息来源的官网。
学习贯彻，与国家前途和世界发展同步，把握时代机遇，规避金融风险。这不是说空话套话，而是具有很实际的意义。
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